Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 11 2013

China's Plenum meeting could have a profound impact for global markets

Monday sees several bank holidays that will affect the volume of trading activity during the various trading sessions. France, Canada and the USA have bank holidays. The German Bundesbank president Weidmann will hold court with a conference on Monday. Whilst the German central bank is subservient and defers to the ECB, on matters such as quantitative easing and rate setting, investors and analysts will look for 'code' in Weidmann's speech concerning the direction the singular German economy will be headed for and directed towards over coming months. Towards the end of the trading day we'll receive the consumer confidence publication from Australia's National Bank. The previous month's reading came in at 12, a print close to this figure is expected. Sterling posted its first weekly advance in three versus the dollar as reports showed British services growth unexpectedly accelerated in October to the fastest pace in 16 years. U.K. government bonds declined for a second week as the Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low, whilst maintaining its bond-buying stimulus target. The pound climbed versus the euro for a second week, rising the most since April, after the European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate, boosting demand for the U.K. currency. Benchmark 10-year yields reached the highest level in seven weeks last week after payrolls grew by 204,000 in October versus the 120,000 median forecast. U.S. debt rallied after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record to address prolonged price weakness. The USA Treasury will auction $70 billion of notes and bonds this week. Treasuries fell the most in two months as reports showed the economy expanded in the third quarter beyond projections, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to 'tapering' its $85 billion of monthly bond-buying.



FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-11 09:00 GMT | IT Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Sep)
2013-11-11 17:00 GMT | DE German Buba President Weidmann speech
2013-11-11 23:30 GMT | AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov)
2013-11-11 23:50 GMT | JP Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | EUR/JPY loses momentum in late Asian trading session
2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | GBP/USD, another 1.5900 retest on deck - 2ndSkies
2013-11-11 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD should see sell on strength circa 1.3375 - JPMorgan
2013-11-11 04:19 GMT | AUD/USD sideways after solid Australian home data

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33671 LOW 1.33448 BID 1.33657 ASK 1.33659 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While price is quoted below the moving averages our medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Though, appreciation above the resistance at 1.3438 (R1) might enable upwards penetration towards to next targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3543 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.3317 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 1.3262 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.3209 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3492, 1.3543
Support Levels: 1.3317, 1.3262, 1.3209

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60216 LOW 1.59978 BID 1.60182 ASK 1.60187 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced consolidation pattern, however, price strengthening above the next resistive structure at 1.6058 (R1) might activate short-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.6085 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the next support level at 1.5993 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5968 (S2) and 1.5942 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6058, 1.6085, 1.6112
Support Levels: 1.5993, 1.5968, 1.5942

------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.225 LOW 98.94 BID 98.953 ASK 98.955 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 29:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation on Friday we expect to see some consolidation ahead. Though clearance of next resistance level at 99.23 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 99.41 (R2) and 99.60 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, recovery phase might commence below the important support level at 98.85 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 98.65 (S2) and 98.47 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.23, 99.41, 99.60
Support Levels: 98.85, 98.65, 98.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 12 2013

USA small business optimism loses ground in October.

In the overnight early morning trading session we'll receive the publication of the Australian NAB business confidence report. Japan will release its consumer confidence index, predicted to come in at 46.3. UK inflation figures are published in the London session, expected to come in at 2.5% for CPI and 3% for RPI. The USA small business index is published in the afternoon session expected in at 93.5, as is the RBNZ financial stability report for New Zealand. It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future. The RBNZ governor Wheeler will then hold court shortly after the financial stability report to discuss the current state of the nation's finances. The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism in the USA has lost 2.3 points to 91.6. Two components, the outlook for business conditions and the outlook for real sales gains, accounted for 52 percent of the Index decline. A weaker outlook for business produced dissatisfaction with inventory stocks, and fewer plans to create new jobs. The average value of the Index since the recovery started is 91. Looking towards tomorrow's open the DJIA equity index future is up 0.18%, SPX up 0.09% and the NASDAQ future is currently at the time of writing down 0.15%. The DAX future is up 0.48%, STOXX up 0.69% and CAC up 0.81% with UK FTSE up 0.43%. The DJIA closed up 0.14%, the SPX up 0.07% and the NASDAQ up 0.01%. Looking at Europe's bourses the STOXX index closed up 0.59%, CAC up 0.70%, DAX up 0.33%, and the UK FTSE up 0.30%.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-12 09:30 GMT | UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-12 13:30 GMT | US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
2013-11-12 20:00 GMT | RBNZ Financial Stability Report
2013-11-12 23:50 GMT | JP Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-12 07:16 GMT | EUR/USD dips to lows on German data
2013-11-12 06:56 GMT | GBP/USD deflates to session lows
2013-11-12 05:28 GMT | EUR/GBP on the soggy side
2013-11-12 05:07 GMT | GBP/AUD soars on solid UK home data, struggling Aussie

----------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.34137 LOW 1.33798 BID 1.33938 ASK 1.33941 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 09 : 51:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of further price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3438 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest interim target at 1.3485 (R2) and then mark at 1.3532 (R3) acts as next attractive point. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.3368 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.3317 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3270 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3485, 1.3532
Support Levels: 1.3368, 1.3317, 1.3270

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59922 LOW 1.59513 BID 1.59573 ASK 1.59577 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 09 : 51:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.5978 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6005 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6031 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, progress below the initial support level at 1.5932 (S1) might initiate bearish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.5907 (S2) and 1.5880 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5978, 1.6005, 1.6031
Support Levels: 1.5932, 1.5907, 1.5880

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.731 LOW 99.104 BID 99.688 ASK 99.692 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 09 : 51:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation needs to clear the barrier at 99.86 (R1) to enable our interim target at 100.06 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 100.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, USDJPY might encounter supportive measures at 99.30 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 99.10 (S2) and 98.89 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.86, 100.06, 100.25
Support Levels: 99.30, 99.10, 98.89

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 13 2013

Japan's preliminary GDP figures are expected in up 0.4% as Ben Bernanke gives a speech

European markets take centre stage on Wednesday, the UK's claimant count data is published, with the rate of unemployment scheduled to fall to 7.6% of the workforce. Industrial production for Europe is scheduled to fall by 0.2%. Later the BoE governor Carney delivers the bank's quarterly inflation report. Later on the German Bundesbank president Weidmann speaks and despite the German central bank not being in control of its money supply, or interest rate setting, the bank is still amongst the most respected banking institutions globally. The USA federal budget balance is scheduled to deliver what many may consider a rogue outlier number, predictions suggest a figure of -$103 billion will be published when last months' figure was a positive $73 billion. Later on in the late evening trading session we receive New Zealand's retail sales figures expected in at 0.9%. Thereafter Japan's preliminary GDP figure is expected to print at 0.4%. The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke gives a speech, whilst China reveals its percentage rise in foreign firms' investments and finally Japan delivers it's revised industrial prod ruins figures expected in at 1.5% up month on month. Looking towards the opening sessions on Wednesday the DJIA future is down 0.07%, SPX down 0.14% and the NASDAQ up 0.31%. European indices look weak; STOXX down 0.59%, DAX down 0.37%, CAC down 0.60% and UK FTSE down 0.14%. NYMEX WTI oil closed the day down 2.18% at $93.07 per barrel. NYMEX nat gas was up 2.01% on the day at $3.65 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day down 1.09% at $1267.20 per ounce with silver down 2.69% at $20.71 per ounce.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-13 09:30 GMT | UK.ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Sep)
2013-11-13 10:00 GMT | EU.Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Sep)
2013-11-13 10:30 GMT | UK.Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
2013-11-13 12:00 GMT | US.MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 8)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-13 05:50 GMT | EUR/USD edges higher; momentum bias still negative
2013-11-13 05:03 GMT | AUD/CHF slightly higher; both components under pressure
2013-11-13 04:40 GMT | GBP/JPY back down at 158 after failing to conquer 159 for days
2013-11-13 04:19 GMT | EUR/JPY in consolidation mode


-------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34525 LOW 1.34296 BID 1.34427 ASK 1.34429 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 07 : 58:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3456 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3484 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3510 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3426 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.3402 (S2) and 1.3374 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3456, 1.3484, 1.3510
Support Levels: 1.3426, 1.3402, 1.3374

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59073 LOW 1.58855 BID 1.58930 ASK 1.58933 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 07:58:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5919 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.5938 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.5962 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.5866 (S2) and 1.5848 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5919, 1.5938, 1.5962
Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5866, 1.5848

--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.673 LOW 99.428 BID 99.519 ASK 99.521 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 07 : 58:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 99.80 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 99.97 (R2) and 100.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.47 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 99.32 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 99.16 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.80, 99.97, 100.09
Support Levels: 99.47, 99.32, 99.16

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 15 2013

European inflation is expected to fall to 0.7% whilst the USA empire manufacturing survey is expected to rise.

The European CPI figure is published on Friday expected in at 0.7% year on year. Canada's manufacturing sales is expected in up 0.5%. The USA empire manufacturing survey is expected to print at 5.2 up from the previous month's 1.5. Import prices month on month are expected in down 0.4% whilst industrial production is expected in at 0.1% up for the month. The DJIA closed up 0.35% on Thursday, SPX up 0.48%, NASDAQ up 0.18%. European indices recovered strongly from the previous day's fall; STOXX up 1.08%, CAC up 1.04%, DAX up 1.05%, FTSE up 0.54%. Looking towards equity index futures the DJIA is up 0.38%, SPX up 0.52% and NASDAQ up 0.26%, CAC up 1.02%, DAX up 1.12%, FTSE up 0.57%. NYMEX WTI oil closed up 0.06% at $93.94 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas up 1.46% at $3.62 per therm. COMEX gold closed up on the day 1.43% at $1286.50 per ounce The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,018.81 at 3:19 p.m. in New York after dropping to 1,015.83, the lowest since Nov. 7th. The yen fell 0.8 percent to 100.06 per dollar after touching 100.15, the weakest level since Sept. 11th. Japan’s currency declined 0.6 percent to 134.68 per euro. The euro slid 0.2 percent to $1.3461 after declining as much as 0.5 percent. The dollar rose from the lowest level in a week as investors believe that the Federal Reserve is still moving toward reducing its bond buying after chairman-nominee Janet Yellen said it “will not continue indefinitely.”


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | EMU EcoFin Meeting
2013-11-15 10:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2013-11-15 13:30 GMT | US Export Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-15 14:15 GMT | US Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-15 06:44 GMT | EUR/GBP remains weak as Friday wears on; European data looms
2013-11-15 06:35 GMT | USD/JPY re-visits 100.00 as intra-day specs sell-off
2013-11-15 05:47 GMT | Aussie Dollar the biggest mover in an overall quiet session
2013-11-15 05:27 GMT | EUR/USD should head towards 1.20 - Societe Generale


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34639 LOW 1.34453 BID 1.34595 ASK 1.34598 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 44:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD commenced consolidation phase, however, appreciation above the next resistance at 1.3488 (R1) might be a good catalyst for an upwards formation towards to next targets at 1.3511 (R2) and 1.3533 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of possible price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3433 (S1). Break here would suggest lower targets at 1.3412 (S2) and 1.3390 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3488, 1.3511, 1.3533
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3412, 1.3390

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60819 LOW 1.60512 BID 1.60791 ASK 1.60797 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 44:34



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards extension above the resistive measure at 1.6101 (R1) is liable to commence medium-term bullish structure. Our intraday targets locates at 1.6134 (R2) and 1.6167 (R3) price levels. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next supportive barrier at 1.6031 (S1) prevents further downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower targets at 1.5997 (S2) and 1.5964 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.6101, 1.6134, 1.6167
Support Levels: 1.6031, 1.5997, 1.5964

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.305 LOW 99.94 BID 100.017 ASK 100.020 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 44:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 100.31 (R1). Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.57 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 100.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 99.79 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 99.52 (S2) and 99.26 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 100.31, 100.57, 100.82
Support Levels: 99.79, 99.52, 99.26

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013

European manufacturing PMIs published Thursday could indicate the ECB's next move on interest rates

Thursday sees the publication of Germany's and France's flash manufacturing and service PMIs together with Europe's which is expected to print at 51.6 for manufacturing and 51.9 for services. The RBA governor of Australia holds court on Thursday, whilst the UK's public net sector borrowing is published expected slightly up in at £10.1 bn. USA PPI is expected in at -0.1% whilst unemployment numbers are expected in at 333K, slightly up from the previous week. Flash manufacturing data is expected to print at 52.6. Europe's consumer confidence is expected in at -14.1 with the Philly manufacturing index for the USA expected in at 15.1, down from 19.8 the previous month. Perhaps the most illuminating comment in the latest FOMC meeting minutes, published late Wednesday evening, was the commitment that; "the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends". The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major peers, increased for the first time in four days, adding 0.4 percent to 1,019.10 yen late in New York. The euro declined 0.9 percent to 134.34 yen after earlier touching 135.95, the strongest level since October 2009. The shared currency fell 0.8 percent to $1.3435. The dollar slid 0.1 percent to 99.99 yen. The dollar rose versus most major peers as Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-21 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
2013-11-21 09:05 GMT | RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
2013-11-21 10:05 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-11-21 13:30 GMT | US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-21 06:15 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 100.60, new 6-month high
2013-11-21 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD maintains bearish pressure, 1.3390 is critical support Thursday
2013-11-21 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD bearish march pauses at 0.93 ahead of RBA Stevens
2013-11-21 03:24 GMT | BoJ keeps policy unchanged, retains 60T-70T easing plan


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3442 LOW 1.34136 BID 1.34286 ASK 1.34289 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 37:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.3462 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3412 (S1) on a downside. A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3380 (S2) and 1.3348 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3462, 1.3492, 1.3525
Support Levels: 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3348

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61082 LOW 1.60721 BID 1.60860 ASK 1.60869 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 37:16



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6177 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6220 (R2) and 1.6260 (R3). Downwards scenario: However, if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.6057 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 1.6018 (S2) and 1.5978 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6220, 1.6260
Support Levels: 1.6057, 1.6018, 1.5978

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.812 LOW 100.006 BID 100.690 ASK 100.694 CHANGE 0.66% TIME 08 : 37:17



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market gained momentum on the upside recently and turned short-term tendency to the positive side. Further appreciation above the resistance at 100.88 (R1) might push the price towards to our targets at 101.12 (R2) and 101.36 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 100.44 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and push the price towards to our intraday targets at 100.19 (S2) and 99.95 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.88, 101.12, 101.36
Support Levels: 100.44, 100.19, 99.95

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 22 2013

DJIA closes above 16,000 for the first time as dollar yen rises above 101

Today we receive the data concerning Germany's final GDP figure expected in at 0.3% up, with the German IFO index expected in at 107.9. Friday also sees a raft of info. regarding Canada; core CPI data is published expected in flat, with CPI up 0.2%. Retail sales is predicted in up 0.5% for the month. Jolts job openings are published in the USA, it measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. The DJIA rose more than 100 points and finally closed above 16,000 for the first time in history on Thursday. The index crossed that psychological milestone earlier this week, but then sold off for three days as the index closed in the red. The S&P 500 also closed up, while the Nasdaq rose more than 1%. The yen fell 1.1 percent to 101.16 per dollar late in New York time Thursday, the weakest level seen since July 10th. Japan’s currency slid 1.4 percent to 136.37 per euro after declining to 136.40, the lowest since October 2009. The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3482. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 major counterparts, rose 0.2 percent to 1,020.97 after advancing 0.4 percent Wednesday. The dollar gauge breached its 100- and 200-day moving averages as it approached a two-month high.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-22 07:00 GMT | DE Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)
2013-11-22 09:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-22 06:47 GMT | EUR/USD tests highs ahead of German data
2013-11-22 06:34 GMT | GBP/USD nearing upper edge of two-month trading range
2013-11-22 05:39 GMT | USD/JPY retests 101.00 bids, 101.30+ double topside failure
2013-11-22 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD bearish party goes on, 0.92 gives up


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34895 LOW 1.34624 BID 1.34837 ASK 1.34840 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 57:07



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further upwards penetration might face next challenge at 1.3495 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3513 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3530 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.3462 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 1.3444 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3426 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3495, 1.3513, 1.3530
Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3444, 1.3426

--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.62046 LOW 1.61764 BID 1.61945 ASK 1.61952 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 57:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.6213 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.6242 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6271 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support barrier at 1.6178 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 1.6150 (S2) and 1.6122 (S3) in potential

Resistance Levels: 1.6213, 1.6242, 1.6271
Support Levels: 1.6178, 1.6150, 1.6122

--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.353 LOW 100.956 BID 100.997 ASK 100.999 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 57:10



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 101.36 (R1) would suggest next targets at 101.58 (R2) and 101.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, a dip below the initial support level at 100.84 (S1) is liable to trigger bearish pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.62 (S2) and 100.39 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 101.36, 101.58, 101.81
Support Levels: 100.84, 100.62, 100.39

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 26 2013

USA house price index is published as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to rise.

Tuesday in the UK will see the publication of the UK's Nationwide Building Society's house price inflation report. As one of the more modest/reasonable indices of house price data in the UK the print is expected to come in up 0.6% month on month. The UK also holds inflation report hearings during the day. The USA publishes data on building permits and housing starts, expected in at circa 0.92K for both. The Standard & Poor's Case Shiller house price index is published with the expectations that annual house price inflation in the USA will rise to 13% year on year. The Conference Board Confidence index is published, expected in at 72.1, with the Richmond Manufacturing index expected up at 3 from the previous reading of 1.0. Late Tuesday evening New Zealand publishes its trade balance, expected down at -345 million, whilst construction data (completed) for Australia is published. The yen fell 0.4 percent to 101.67 per dollar late in New York time on Monday after reaching 101.92, the weakest since May 29th. It slid 0.1 percent to 137.43 per euro after touching 137.99, the weakest since October 2009. The dollar added 0.3 percent to $1.3517 against Europe’s shared currency. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.2 percent to 1,020.95.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-26 10:00 GMT | UK Inflation Report Hearings
2013-11-26 13:30 GMT | US Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)
2013-11-26 15:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Nov)
2013-11-26 21:45 GMT | NZ Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-26 05:44 GMT | EUR/USD at risk of further retracements - ANZ
2013-11-26 04:47 GMT | Gold giving its best impression of an upside attempt – something not seen in a while
2013-11-26 03:55 GMT | GBP/USD falling softly after posting a nasty bearish reversal candle on Monday
2013-11-26 02:16 GMT | USD/JPY taking a breather after closing Monday above key “correction resistance” at 101.46

-----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35408 LOW 1.35151 BID 1.35301 ASK 1.35305 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 36:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Risk of possible price appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3541 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3553 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3566 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our technical outlook would turn into negative side below the support level at 1.3516 (S1). Possible price depreciation would then be targeting support at 1.3504 (S2) en route to final target at 1.3492 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3541, 1.3553, 1.3566
Support Levels: 1.3516, 1.3504, 1.3492

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61742 LOW 1.61456 BID 1.61462 ASK 1.61469 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 36:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6174 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 1.6193 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6213 (R3) Downwards scenario: Opportunity for bearish oriented traders is seen below the important support level at 1.6133 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.6114 (S2) and 1.6096 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6174, 1.6193, 1.6213
Support Levels: 1.6133, 1.6114, 1.6096

------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.71 LOW 101.333 BID 101.551 ASK 101.555 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 36:34



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 101.91 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus will shift to the next target at 102.15 (R2) and any further price strengthening would be limited to final resistance at 102.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 101.32 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 101.10 (S2) and 100.86 (S3) as next possible targets.

Resistance Levels: 101.91, 102.15, 102.39
Support Levels: 101.32, 101.10, 100.86

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 27 2013

Unemployment claims in the USA expected to stay in their narrow range of 331K

Wednesday sees the UK's second estimate GDP figure is published, expected to come in at 0.8%. The preliminary business investment data is published, it fell by 2.7% last quarter the expectations is for a 2.3% rise in the latest figures. The GFK German consumer confidence is published expected in at 7.1, versus 7.0 in the previous month. Durable goods orders for the USA are expected to fall by 1.5%, the Chicago PMI is excepted to fall to 60.6, with unemployment claims in at 331K. Natural gas and oil storage figures for the USA need watching carefully in relation to the volatility of trading oil and gas. Retail sales in Japan are scheduled to fall to a 2.2% increase month on month. The New Zealand ANZ business confidence index is published in the evening, as is Australian data concerning new homes sales and private capital expenditure, the latter expected to fall by -1.1%. Looking towards Wednesday's market open the DJIA equity index future is flat, as is the SPX, with the NASDAQ up 0.53%. STOXX is down 0.23%, DAX down 0.03%, CAC down 0.52% and FTSE down 0.93%. NYMEX WTI oil closed down 0.44% on the Dayan Tuesday at $93.68 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas was up 0.77% at $3.82 per therm. COMEX gold was flat at $1241.50 per ounce and silver at$19.85 per ounce down 0.38%. The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.3572 per dollar late in New York time Tuesday after rising to $1.3575, the highest level since Nov. 20th. The 17-nation currency was little changed at 137.46 yen. Japan’s currency appreciated 0.4 percent to 101.28 per dollar after gaining 0.5 percent, the most since Nov. 13th. Australia’s dollar fell 0.8 percent to 92.44 yen after decreasing 1 percent to 92.25, the weakest since Oct. 10th. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.2 percent to 1,018.83 after gaining 0.1 percent.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-27 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 22)
2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct)
2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders (Oct)
2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-27 05:49 GMT | GBP/JPY finds offers at 164.90
2013-11-27 03:44 GMT | EUR/USD spikes in Asia, approaching 1.36
2013-11-27 01:47 GMT | AUD/USD pressured; glued to 0.91
2013-11-27 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY trading a bit higher Wednesday after posting a bearish reversal candle Tuesday

-------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.3599 LOW 1.35576 BID 1.35876 ASK 1.35881 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 07:20



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The next resistance level is at 1.3597 (R1). Penetration above that level might trigger upside action and expose our next resistive mean at 1.3620 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3646 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3560 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3542 (S2) and 1.3520 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3646
Support Levels: 1.3560, 1.3542, 1.3520

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.62305 LOW 1.61973 BID 1.62164 ASK 1.62176 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 07:21



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6236 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6276 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6309 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.6188 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.6145 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.6108 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.6236, 1.6276, 1.6309
Support Levels: 1.6188, 1.6145, 1.6108

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.652 LOW 101.184 BID 101.496 ASK 101.501 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 07:22



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 101.89 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 102.13 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 102.35 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, a break of the support at 101.22 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 101.00 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 100.76 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.89, 102.13, 102.35
Support Levels: 101.22, 101.00, 100.76

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 02 2013

Australian Manufacturing Slips in November, U.S. Retail Holiday Sales Up 2.3%, Whilst Foot Traffic Declines.

The latest Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) fell by 5.4 points in November, to 47.7 points (seasonally adjusted). This fall interrupted the promising run of mild expansion in the Australian PMI over the past two months (50 points marks the separation between expansion and contraction in the Australian PMI) and took the index back to its pre-election levels. The Australian PMI is again indicating varying degrees of contraction across the manufacturing sectors. U.S. retailers enjoyed a 2.3 percent sales gain over the critical Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday time, in line with a prediction for the weakest holiday results since 2009. Sales at brick-and-mortar stores on Thanksgiving and Black Friday rose to $12.3 billion, according to a report yesterday from ShopperTrak a Chicago-based researcher who reiterated its prediction that sales for the entire holiday season will gain 2.4 percent, representing the smallest increase since the last recession. Sunday-Monday morning is a relatively quite opening for high impact news events, capital spending in Japan is predicted to rise by 3.1%. The HSBC final manufacturing PMI for China is expected to come in at 50.5. There is a raft of Australian data published overnight/early morning, with building approvals being the standout piece of data which is expected to fall to -4.3% from a positive 14.4% the previous month. Company operating profits are published for Australian companies. New Zealand's overseas trade index is expected in at 3.0%.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-02 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
2013-12-02 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
2013-12-02 13:30 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-12-02 15:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-02 07:52 GMT | AUD/USD firmer, eyes on 0.9170
2013-12-02 06:53 GMT | EUR/USD stabilizing around 1.3600
2013-12-02 04:10 GMT | USD/JPY, second topside failure at 102.60
2013-12-02 03:06 GMT | GBP/USD, if 1.64/6425 absorbed, potential into 1.70/1.73 - BBH

-----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36157 LOW 1.35812 BID 1.36032 ASK 1.36036 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price appreciation is seen above the key resistance at 1.3622 (R1). Break here would open a route towards to our intraday targets at 1.3643 (R2) and 1.3664 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level at 1.3580 (S1) prevents possible market weakening. Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.3558 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3537 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3622, 1.3643, 1.3664
Support Levels: 1.3580, 1.3558, 1.3537

--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64422 LOW 1.63684 BID 1.64126 ASK 1.64128 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Fractal level at 1.6442 (R1) offers next resistive structure on the upside. If the price manages to overcome it, we would expect further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.6471 (R2) and 1.6499 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the hourly chart GBPUSD looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Friday’s high offers key support level at 1.6385 (S1). Break here is required to enable our next targets at 1.6356 (S2) and 1.6327 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6442, 1.6471, 1.6499
Support Levels: 1.6385, 1.6356, 1.6327

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.594 LOW 102.226 BID 102.559 ASK 102.562 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Price comfortably ranging on the hourly chart, however we see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 102.61 (R1) later on today. Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 102.82 (R2) and 103.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our support level at 102.21 (S1) would clear the way for a recovery action towards to our lower targets at 102.00 (S2) and 101.78 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 102.61, 102.82, 103.05
Support Levels: 102.21, 102.00, 101.78

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 03 2013

Australia's RBA expected to keep cash rate at 2.5%, whilst UK house prices and construction expected to rise

Tuesday sees the publication of several key economic data, including Spanish unemployment data expected in at 44.3K below the 88K the previous month. In the UK the Halifax house price ides is expected to rise by 0.8% month on month, whilst the construction PMI is expected in at 59.3. Total vehicle sales in the USA might give an indication of the overall consumer sentiment and the existing appetite for new credit. Australia's GDP is expected in at 0.7% up from 0.6% the previous month. The yen fell 0.5 percent to 102.94 per dollar late in New York time Monday, touching the least since May 23rd. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 139.40 per euro after depreciating to 139.71 on Nov. 29th, the weakest level since October 2008. The euro dropped 0.4 percent to $1.3542. The yen fell to a six-month low versus the dollar Monday after reports showed manufacturing in China, Europe and the U.K. expanded last month, driving demand for risk and underscoring Japan’s currency’s role in the carry trade. Australia’s dollar was little changed after rallying from almost its weakest level in three months and New Zealand’s currency rose for a second day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets overnight Monday/Tuesday, analysts predict policy makers will keep interest rates unchanged at 2.5 percent. The Aussie rose as much as 0.7 percent versus the greenback after falling as low as 90.56 on Nov. 29th, the least since Sept. 4th. New Zealand’s currency climbed 0.8 percent to 81.86 U.S. cents.


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-03 09:30 GMT UK PMI Construction (Nov)
2013-12-03 10:00 GMT EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-12-03 16:30 GMT US 4-Week Bill Auction
2013-12-03 23:30 GMT AU AiG Performance of Services Index (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-03 05:14 GMT USD/JPY breaks above 103.25 barrier
2013-12-03 04:35 GMT EUR/USD likely see stronger selling interest after 1.3550/60 loss
2013-12-03 03:39 GMT AUD/USD offers absorbing initial 0.9065 bounce post RBA
2013-12-03 03:34 GMT RBA leaves rates unchanged, keeps neutral tone

-------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35504 LOW 1.35244 BID 1.35497 ASK 1.35499 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Discounted value of EURUSD determined negative bias on the short-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.3559 (R1). Only clearance here would allow possible gains, targeting 1.3576 (R2) and 1.3592 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, next on tap is seen support level at 1.3524 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower targets at 1.3508 (S2) and 1.3491 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3559, 1.3576, 1.3592
Support Levels: 1.3524, 1.3508, 1.3491

-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63783 LOW 1.63467 BID 1.6377 ASK 1.63775 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 52:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive measure at 1.6384 (R1) prevents further gains. Successful clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6407 (R2) and 1.6429 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand if the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect to see clearance of our next support level at 1.6343 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.6320 (S2) and 1.6297 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6384, 1.6407, 1.6429
Support Levels: 1.6343, 1.6320, 1.6297

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 103.379 LOW 102.833 BID 103.237 ASK 103.239 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 52:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fractals level at 103.43 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 103.67 (R2) and 103.92 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 102.81 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 102.56 (S2) and 102.30 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.43, 103.67, 103.92
Support Levels: 102.81, 102.56, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,