Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC

alayoua · 12-19-2013, 03:22 AM

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 19 2013

After the USA FOMC taper tantrum focus now shifts back to key fundamentals such as the USA claimant count

Thursday we receive data on Europe's balance of payments which is predicted to print at �14.2 billion positive. Retail sales in the UK are predicted to come in at 0.3% up on the month. USA unemployment claims are predicted in at 336K, down from 368K, existing home sales are predicted in at 5.04 million annual rate, a slight seasonal fall from the previous month. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to come in at 10.3, significantly up from 6.5 the previous month. Natural gas storage data is printed for the USA. Last week was down -81bn. Late evening Japan publishes its monetary policy statement and the Bank of Japan holds a press conference. The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus its 10 major counterparts, gained 0.5 percent to 1.021.53 late in New York Wednesday. The greenback added 1.4 percent to 104.12 yen, the highest level since Oct. 6, 2008. The U.S. currency advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3685 versus Europe�s 17-nation euro. The dollar rose to a five-year high versus the yen after the Federal Reserve officials voted to reduce monthly asset purchases that are seen as debasing the U.S. currency amidst signs that economic growth is strengthening. The DJIA closed up 1.84% on Wednesday, a new record high at 16167, the SPX closed up 1.66% and the NASDAQ up 1.15%. In Europe STOXX closed up 1.13%, CAC up 1.00%, DAX up 1.06% and the FTSE up 0.09%. Looking towards Thursday the equity index future for the DJIA is up 1.89%, SPX up 1.79%, NASDAQ future up 1.38%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 0.88%, DAX up 0.88%, CAC up 0.97%, FTSE up 0.02%. NYMEX WTI oil closed the day up 0.60% at $97.80 per barrel, NASDAQ nat gas down 0.30% at $4.27 per therm, COMEX gold up 0.40% at $1235.00 per ounce with silver on COMEX down 0.66% at $19.71 per ounce.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-19 09:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-19 13:30 GMT | US. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)
2013-12-19 14:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q3)
2013-12-19 15:00 GMT | US. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-19 05:34 GMT | GBP/AUD remains at multi-year highs just above 1.8500; next long-term target is 1.9670
2013-12-19 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD extends bearish bias, 1.3615 support eyed
2013-12-19 04:47 GMT | EUR/JPY pulling back early Thursday after big up day Wednesday; next upside target 145.76
2013-12-19 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD may have completed 5th wave higher Wednesday at 1.6483; 1st pullback target 1.6089

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36939 LOW 1.36493 BID 1.36744 ASK 1.36747 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative short-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.3697 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.3715 (R2) and 1.3731 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3656 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3634 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3615 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3697, 1.3715, 1.3731
Support Levels: 1.3656, 1.3634, 1.3615

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63972 LOW 1.63656 BID 1.63763 ASK 1.63768 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.6391 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.6408 (R2) and 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.6353 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 1.6337 (S2) and 1.6324 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424
Support Levels: 1.6353, 1.6337, 1.6324

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USDJPY :
HIGH 104.363 LOW 103.782 BID 104.006 ASK 104.009 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 104.36 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 104.60 (R2) and 104.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.83 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.54 (S2) and 103.24 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 104.36, 104.60, 104.83
Support Levels: 103.83, 103.54, 103.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,

alayoua · 12-20-2013, 03:46 AM

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 20 2013

USA final GDP data for 2013 published expectation at 3.6% annually, as UK current account data is expected to worsen

Friday sees the publication of German PPI for the month, predicted to come in flat with the German GfK business climate expected in at 7.4. The UK's current account data is expected to worsen at -13.8 bn, with public sector borrowing predicted to remain steady at �6.6 bn and final GDP expected in at 0.8%. Core data for Canada includes CPI predicted to come in at 0.1% with retail sales expected to be flat and CPI expected in up 0.2%. The USA final GDP data is predicted to show growth of 3.6% annually. Europe's consumer confidence is predicted to come on at -15 whilst the last high impact news event of the week sees the nomination vote for Fed chairman. The DJIA closed up marginally by 0.07% on Thursday, the SPX closed down 0.06% and NASDAQ down 0.29%. European markets played catch up with the bullish momentum move post the Fed's taper decision on Wednesday; STOXX closed up 1.88%, CAC up 1.64%, DAX up 1.68%, FTSE up 1.43%. Looking towards Friday's open; the DJIA equity index future is up 0.02%, SPX future down 0.17%, NASDAQ future down 0.45%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 1.78%, DAX future up 1.56%, CAC future up 1.66%, FTSE up 1.52%. NYMEX WTI oil rose 0.99% to $98.77 per barrel on Thursday, NYMEX nat gas rose a significant 4.52% to $4.44 per therm due to storage capacity concerns. COMEX gold experienced a significant sell off, down 3.69% on the day to $1189.40 per ounce. COMEX silver closed down on the day 4.11% at $19.24 per ounce. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.3655 per euro mid-afternoon Thursday New York time after advancing to $1.3650, the strongest level since Dec. 6th. The U.S. currency dropped 0.1 percent to 104.21 yen. The yen gained 0.3 percent to 142.29 per euro after sliding to 142.90 yesterday, the weakest level since October 2008. The dollar climbed to the strongest level in almost two weeks against the euro as investors assess Federal Reserve plans to wind down bond-buying next year amid signs that economic growth is gaining momentum. The U.S. currency advanced versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it would slow monetary stimulus to $75 billion a month from $85 billion.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-20 09:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3)
2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | US. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
2013-12-20 n/a | US. Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-20 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD extends decline to 2 week low
2013-12-20 05:45 GMT | EUR/GBP continues to slide Friday ahead of data; 0.8299 is next support
2013-12-20 04:11 GMT | USD/JPY holds at 5-year highs after BoJ
2013-12-20 03:46 GMT | AUD/NZD back on the downside after Thursday bounce; downtrend intact with target of 1.0560

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3667 LOW 1.36253 BID 1.36362 ASK 1.36365 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.3663 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.3678 (R2) and 1.3691 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low offers key supportive barrier at 1.3631 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum on the downside and expose our intraday targets at 1.3615 (S2) and 1.3600 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3663, 1.3678, 1.3691
Support Levels: 1.3631, 1.3615, 1.3600

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63722 LOW 1.63502 BID 1.63527 ASK 1.63529 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6391 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6408 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6351 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6337 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6324 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424
Support Levels: 1.6351, 1.6337, 1.6324

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USDJPY :
HIGH 104.591 LOW 104.213 BID 104.44 ASK 104.442 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers key resistance level at 104.60 (R1). In case of price appreciation above it our focus would be shifted to the higher targets at 104.83 (R2) and 105.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly positive however possible progress below the initial support level at 104.09 (S1) might expose our intraday targets at 103.83 (S2) and then 103.54 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 104.60, 104.83, 105.05
Support Levels: 104.09, 103.83, 103.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd